No historical evidence for increased vulnerability of French crop production to climatic hazards

نویسندگان

چکیده

Recent adverse weather events have questioned the stability of crop production systems. Here, we assessed vulnerability eleven major crops in France between 1959 and 2018 as a function climate, crafting novel hazard framework that combines exposure sensitivity to weather-related hazards. Exposure was defined frequency hazardous climate conditions. Sensitivity estimated by yield response single compound hazards, using observed yields available at département (county) level. Vulnerability computed exposure-weighted average sensitivities. Our results do not reveal any evidence for historically increased French production. events, thus overall vulnerability, has significantly decreased six 2018, shown no significant decline or remained stable other five. Yet hazards can induce losses 30% more several crops. Moreover, heat-related are projected become frequent with change, may rise again future.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1873-2240', '0168-1923']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108453